WARN Act Notice Periods Plummeted During Crisis
The median advance layoff notice fell to about zero days in March and April 2020, a dramatic departure from the typical 60-day requirement, according to Clevelandfed analysis of Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act data. This represented a sharp break from normal patterns, where the median advance layoff notice is typically no less than about 60 days under federal requirements.
The Cleveland Fed's research reveals that many laid-off workers have received little advance notice since March, with the typical business issuing WARN notices on about the same day it started laying off workers. The decline in advance notice suggests that firms largely did not expect the current crisis, according to Clevelandfed researchers.
WARN Act Requirements and Recent Employment Data
The WARN Act requires employers with 100 or more full-time workers to provide at least 60 days advance notice of potential plant closures or mass layoffs, according to Clevelandfed documentation. This federal requirement was designed to give workers sufficient time to seek alternative employment or retraining opportunities before job loss.
Meanwhile, recent employment data shows mixed signals in the labor market. Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October 2025, according to the Adpemploymentreport, though the recovery has been uneven across establishment sizes. Small establishments with 1-19 employees were down 15,000 jobs, according to Adpemploymentreport data, highlighting ongoing challenges for smaller businesses.
Historical Context of Notice Provision
The effectiveness of the WARN Act has been debated since its implementation. Early research by Addison and Blackburn found that the fraction of workers receiving lengthy written advance notice—at least 30 days—did not rise in the first three years the act was in effect from 1989-1991, according to Clevelandfed analysis. They concluded that the WARN Act had at most a small effect on the provision of notice during those initial years.
However, conflicting evidence emerged from other sources. The US Government Accountability Office concluded that workers were more likely to receive stipulated advance notice after the WARN Act took effect, according to Clevelandfed research, suggesting the law did have measurable impact over time.
Geographic and Industry Insights
The Cleveland Fed's analysis focused on Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—the Federal Reserve's Fourth District states—providing detailed geographic insight into layoff patterns. The research found that WARN notices provide timely and detailed data during crisis periods, according to Clevelandfed findings, offering advantages over traditional indicators that may lack geographic or industry specificity.
Standard layoff indicators are falling short during periods of rapid economic change due to infrequent release schedules or lack of geographic and industry information, the Clevelandfed research noted. Initial unemployment insurance claims may be less accurate under extreme conditions because of processing delays, duplicate claims, and fraud, making WARN data particularly valuable for real-time analysis.
Labor Market Mobility and Earnings
Broader labor market research provides context for understanding worker outcomes following job displacement. Individuals' earnings increase in the years following an interstate move relative to their pre-move earnings and to similar aged individuals who stay, according to Kansascityfed research analyzing college-educated males age 25-56 using data spanning from 1996 to 1999.
This research by Glover and Mustre-del-Río, utilizing U.S. Census Bureau data, suggests that geographic mobility can provide pathways to earnings recovery following job displacement, though the relationship between advance notice and subsequent worker outcomes remains complex.
Federal Reserve Data and Economic Monitoring
The Federal Reserve system continues to monitor labor market conditions through multiple data sources. The Fred database serves as a comprehensive repository for economic indicators, providing researchers and policymakers with access to unemployment rates, employment statistics, and other crucial metrics for understanding labor market dynamics.
Additionally, the Federalreserve publishes detailed reports on household economic well-being, offering broader context for understanding how employment disruptions affect American families' financial stability and long-term economic prospects.
Implications for Policy and Practice
The dramatic reduction in advance notice during crisis periods raises important questions about the practical effectiveness of the WARN Act during unprecedented economic disruptions. While the law provides important worker protections under normal circumstances, the Cleveland Fed's findings suggest that emergency conditions can effectively suspend these protections.
The research indicates that WARN notices remained valuable data sources even when advance notice periods collapsed, according to Clevelandfed analysis. The detailed company and location information in WARN filings provided researchers and policymakers with granular insights into which industries and geographic areas were most affected by layoffs.
Looking ahead, the mixed employment data—with private sector job gains offset by continued struggles among small establishments—suggests that layoff patterns and notice provision may continue to evolve as economic conditions shift. The Cleveland Fed's October data provides crucial baseline information for understanding these ongoing labor market transitions and the continued relevance of federal notification requirements in protecting worker interests.