Donald Trump announced Saturday that a deal ending the Iran conflict would be signed Sunday and the Strait of Hormuz would open "immediately." Iran's foreign ministry said Saturday the signing date was not Sunday but "the possibility of this happening in the coming days cannot be ruled out" [3]. A diplomat briefed on the talks said the proposed text provides for a timeline for demining the waterway with the US naval blockade remaining in place during that period, not immediate opening [3].
The gap between what Trump says is in the agreement and what Iran confirms is on paper has widened with each announcement. Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must agree to four conditions: never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon, open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, eliminate mines in the waterway, and allow the US to destroy highly enriched uranium from an Iranian nuclear site [1]. He said the strait would be "open to all" immediately after signing [3].
Iran's Position on the Text
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Saturday that large parts of the negotiation text had been finalized but "Iran has not reached a final conclusion on the agreement" [3]. He stated Iran would not compromise on its red lines, which he did not specify [3]. Tasnim, the semi-official Iranian news agency, instructed readers to dismiss any news from Trump on the matter until Iran announces an understanding [3].
The proposed agreement discusses mechanisms for further nuclear talks and release of frozen Iranian assets but does not contain concrete agreements on how that will take place, according to the diplomat briefed on the talks [3]. The diplomat said the deal had largely been agreed to several weeks ago but had a "50% chance" of collapse, adding "there are a lot of potential spoilers" [3].
The Demining Timeline Trump Did Not Mention
The proposed text provides for a timeline for demining the Strait of Hormuz during which the US naval blockade would remain in place [3]. That sequencing contradicts Trump's claim that the strait would open immediately after signing. The demining timeline has not been made public by either side. Trump said an agreement would allow the strait to reopen immediately and bring gasoline prices "tumbling down" [3].
Oil markets priced the uncertainty Saturday. Brent crude passed $90 after Trump posted there would be "no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" [1]. The price movement suggests traders do not believe commercial shipping will resume on the timeline Trump has described.
What Netanyahu Was Told
Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel was not a party to the memorandum of understanding with Iran [3]. Netanyahu "expressed his appreciation" for Trump's commitment that the final deal would include removal of enriched material, limits on missile production, and cessation of support for proxies [3]. Those items have not been confirmed as part of the current draft text.
Trump told Netanyahu "not to strike back" after Iran launched missiles at Israel [1]. Israel and Iran halted attacks on each other after Trump appealed to "immediately stop shooting" [1]. An 8 April truce paused the worst of the fighting between the parties [3].
The Deadline That Passed
Trump imposed a deadline of 8pm Tuesday (1am Wednesday BST) for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants and bridges [1]. That deadline has passed. Trump said he told military leaders "to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached" [1]. He added "if Iran falls short of my terms, we're going to end it a different way" [3].
Trump claimed Thursday he had cancelled scheduled missile strikes against Iran [3]. He also said the US would seize Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's oil exports [3]. He later told Fox News he did not know if "America has the stomach" to take Kharg Island [3]. Trump claimed the US has destroyed the Iranian navy and air force [3].
The Pattern Since April
Trump has repeatedly insisted a deal was near since the April truce, only for negotiations to drag on [3]. He has claimed dozens of times to be close to a deal without any agreement eventuating [3]. He said Saturday he was "in no hurry" to complete negotiations and that being in a hurry would result in a bad deal [3]. That statement came one day after he announced the deal would be signed Sunday.
Trump said he had negotiated with Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Pakistan on the agreement [3]. He said an agreement was preferable to prevent additional casualties and that he reserved the right to resume offensive action if negotiations collapsed or if a deal was not good for the US [3].
The proposed agreement, if signed, would not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Demining would proceed on a timeline not yet made public, with the US naval blockade enforcing the waterway closure during that period. Gasoline prices, which Trump said would come "tumbling down" after an agreement, would remain elevated until ships can actually transit, a date neither side has committed to.
